Educational sports-betting software · Adults 21+ only · No outcome is guaranteedResponsible betting

Picks · Pre-launch

Selective by design. Pass is a valid pick.

Up to seven fully vetted value wagers per week.Sometimes none. There is no daily-pick promise, because no recommendation should be forced to fill a content calendar.

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No live picks or results yet. Everything on this page is a made-up illustration. Adults 21+ only. Responsible betting.

Price and edge before narrativeCancel conditions on every cardEvery pick graded in public

Where we are

Pre-launch: no picks yet.

This page shows how decisions will be presented, so you can judge the format before anything is published.

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No picks are published yet

The first live recommendations arrive after the launch checks pass. See the roadmap on the About page.

No record, win rate or ROI is shown

We will not display numbers before a verified live record exists.

Every figure here is invented

Teams, books, prices and probabilities are made up to show the format.

The offer, plainly

What the picks are — and are not.

What you can expect

  • Decision-support software with an AI analyst, Willy
  • Up to seven fully vetted value wagers per week
  • Straight bets first; parlays and props only when the math supports them
  • Open about price, edge, risk and the condition that cancels a wager
  • Graded at the exact line we published, with CLV

What you should not expect

  • A tout service or “pick of the day”
  • A promise of one pick per day, or any fixed number
  • Certainty: no outcome is guaranteed and any wager can lose
  • Hidden losers — published picks are never deleted
  • A way to make a living or recover losses

Anatomy of a decision card

Every decision shows its work.

Numbers in the sample card match the notes beside it. The full analysis page adds a market comparison, the three strongest reasons the bet may be wrong, and a postgame audit.

Sample Bet Decision CardIllustrative · made-up numbers
1Away Team +3 at -105Fictional matchup · point spread
2Bet now7Stake: 0.75 units
3Estimated probability55.3%
4Break-even probability51.2%
4No-vig market probability52.4%
5Estimated edge+2.9 pts
5Expected ROI (theoretical, if the estimate is right)8.0%
Sportsbook / observed
6Book A  |  10:42 AM PT
Best price / playable to
6+3 at -105  |  playable to +3 at -115
Timing
Bet now
Primary concern
8Starting cornerback status
Cancel condition
8Cornerback out and line moves below +2.5
Illustration only. The game, prices and probabilities are invented. Estimates can be wrong, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Illustrative example only. Not a current recommendation.

  1. 1
    The wager and priceWhat to bet, at which price, with the market and time it was observed.
  2. 2
    The verdictOne of four: bet now, wait, monitor or pass. Never left implicit.
  3. 3
    Our estimated probabilityOur independent number for how often this side wins — an estimate, not a fact.
  4. 4
    Break-even and no-vig probabilityWhat the price needs to break even, and what the market itself implies once the margin is removed.
  5. 5
    Edge and expected ROIThe gap between our estimate and the no-vig market, and the theoretical return if the estimate is right.
  6. 6
    Playable range and timingThe worst price at which the wager still qualifies, and why it should be acted on now or later.
  7. 7
    The stakeSized in units under hard caps, and shown after the uncertainty haircut.
  8. 8
    Concern and cancel conditionThe main risk in plain words, and the exact event that cancels the wager.

What a wager must clear

Eight gates. Miss one and it is a pass.

These are the qualification criteria from our process. They are why the weekly total is “up to seven” and not a target.

01

Fresh data

Inputs are timestamped and pass a freshness check before any “bet now.”

02

An independent number

Our probability is built before looking at the market narrative.

03

A real edge vs. no-vig

The estimate beats the no-vig market probability, not just the raw implied price.

04

An acceptable price

A best price and a playable-to range are defined, and the price is still in range.

05

A survived challenge

The contrarian review is complete and the edge holds after an uncertainty haircut.

06

Known unknowns

Injury, lineup and weather status is resolved or priced in.

07

A safe stake

The size fits hard caps; correlated positions count as one exposure.

08

A cancel condition

The event that would end the wager is written down in advance.

Numeric thresholds are not set yet. Minimum edge and uncertainty requirements will be set per sport and market, documented on the methodology page and versioned before any live recommendation is published.

Confidence and staking

Stakes get smaller when certainty does.

Educational unit guidance from our process. It is not financial advice, and your own limits always come first.

Pass
0

No defensible advantage. No action.

Lean
0–0.5 units

Interesting but below the approval threshold.

Standard
0.5–1 unit

Positive edge survives review.

Strong
1–1.5 units

Meaningful edge with reliable data.

Exceptional
2 units typical; 3 absolute max

Rare, robust, price-sensitive opportunity.

One unit ≈ 1% of bankroll

Normally one unit equals about 1% of the active betting bankroll.

Never chase

A loss never raises the next stake. Stop and step away.

Never use living-expense money

Only wager what you can afford to lose.

Correlated bets are one exposure

Related wagers are sized as a single position.

Fractional Kelly may inform sizing; hard caps and uncertainty adjustments override it.

Honest states

When there is nothing to show, we say so.

The picks area is designed with empty, stale-price and members-only states, so nothing is ever forced onto the page.

Graded in public

How picks will be recorded and published.

The record starts at launch. No results, win rate or ROI are shown before then, and none are invented.

  • 01

    Timestamped

    Every recommendation is recorded with its exact available price and time.

  • 02

    Graded at our line

    Results are shown at the recommended line, not a later, more favorable number.

  • 03

    Nothing deleted

    Published losing picks stay in the ledger. Corrections remain visible.

  • 04

    Consistent settlement

    Pushes, voids and partial settlements are graded the same way every time.

  • 05

    Separate records

    Free, premium, test and unpublished research picks are never mixed; backtests are never combined with live results.

  • 06

    Independent grading

    We use an independent grading and data service when practical.

Results ledger →Grading methodology →

Access

Start free. Join the waitlist for the rest.

Premium is not open and no price is set. Membership is software access, not a package of guaranteed picks.

Available at launch

Free

  • Weekly education brief
  • Core calculators
  • Limited or delayed public sample picks
  • Basic unit calculator
  • Public performance summary, once a record exists
Get the free brief
Planned · not open

Premium

  • Up to seven fully vetted value wagers per week
  • Full current decision card, best price and playable range
  • Bet now, wait and monitor alerts
  • Full analysis and contrarian review
  • Bankroll profile and exposure controls
  • Detailed performance filters and exports
Join the Premium waitlist
Download

Picks FAQ

Questions, answered straight.

The offer, the examples and the limits.

Responsible betting
01Will there be a pick every day?

No. We do not promise a daily pick. We publish up to seven fully vetted value wagers per week, and some weeks nothing qualifies.

02Are the example numbers real?

No. Every team, sportsbook, price and probability on this page is invented to show how a decision card is laid out. There are no live picks and no results yet.

03What does “pass” mean?

It means the price, edge, uncertainty or market structure did not justify a wager. A pass is a finished, valid decision, not a missing one.

04How much should I bet?

Educational guidance only: many bettors size a unit at about 1% of a dedicated betting bankroll, and never use money needed for living expenses. This is not financial advice, and unit sizes in an example are not a recommendation.

05Will results be published?

Yes, once a live record exists, with every published pick, graded at the price we published, plus a date range, sample size and methodology. Nothing is shown before then.

Start with the math

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SampleSample brief: how to read a decision cardEducation first. No outcome is guaranteed.
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